. >> governor romney fallen behind in the national polls. new polls out this morning iowa and ohio behind in both. we were laughing about the expectations setting on both sides but, governor romney has to shake things up, wednesday night, doesn't he. >> he is going to. every time mitt romney has been confronted in this campaign with one of these moments he has come through in a debate and performed extraordinarily well, laying out his vision very clearly and also contrasting himself and his vision with whoever his opponent was at that time. i have absolute confidence, george, all you will be shaking your head it is a brand new race. jenna: new jersey governor chris christie, making a bold prediction, how about that? the bold prediction related to the first presidential debate saying governor mitt romney's performance against the president could very well change the entire race. but how important are presidential debates and how much do they really shape the outcome in november? we heard a lot. joining me someone who has done research on poll